America has been the predominant military power for the last fifty years. With the break up of the USSR in the late1980s, the US stands alone in its military spending. Americans of my Gen-X generation, are now asking the question, “Should America Serve as the World’s Policeman?” and more cynically, “Can We Afford It?”

The world remains a violent and messy place

It is still a realpolitik world where geopolitical power is sadly demonstrated (as Mao so in-eloquently stated ) “from the barrel of a gun”. There are too many failed economies, unconscionable despots, and tribal conflicts to leave people to their devices. Unfortunately, we are a far cry from the world envisioned by Woodrow Wilson. In many ways, the UN plays only a supporting role.

US has the highest military expenditures

The US spends ~ 4.8% of GDP or $700 billion on the military annually. To put that in perspective:

• US military spending / 315M Americans = $2,300 annually per person
• US military spending / 7B people in the world = Americans pay about $100 annually for each global citizen
• In this graph from the Economist, US military spend is the same as the next 17 countries combined

Unsurprisingly, China has the most soldiers

China has almost 2.3 million soldiers, which is 10x more than the Japanese. In terms of Naval power (shown in the dark blue bars), the US, China and Russia are the only real contenders. China recently acquired and retrofitted an aircraft carrier, but the NY Times notes here that it is only for training purposes and actually has no planes that can land on the vessel. North Korea is also an outlier (as it often is) because it has 49 military personnel for every 1,000 people. So sad.

Military Industrial Complex

President Eisenhower saw it coming 50 years ago. He warned that a Military Industrial Complex would create an environment where the government, armed forces, and private companies share a mutual interest in maintaining a permanent military infrastructure.  Eisenhower said in his 1961 farewell address:

“We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.  The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist.   We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes.  We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

Global arms trade is big business

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), arms exports have been approximately $20-30 billion annually for the last twenty years, as shown in the graph below. It hit a low in the 2002-2003 time frame, and now it is at a high.  SIPRI has a lot of country-level data here for download.

The US and Russia (ex Cold War players) export the most arms

Sounds like the military industrial complex to me. . The US sells a lot to South Korea and Australia, while Russia sells a lot to India and China. Interestingly, the Greeks buy a lot of arms from the Germans and the French.

So, what should role of America’s military be?

In a fascinating debate on the topic of “America Should be the World’s Policeman”, six experts discussed the pros / cons of an activist US foreign policy here. Some might consider this a politically-charged topic, and it is. It deserves discussion. The safety of 1.5+ million American military personnel and $700 billion in annual US military spending hinge on the outcome of the national debate.

PS: Economist article on when China may outspend the US in military spending here.

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